Good news for turkey farmers and your Thanksgiving table
If turkey is on your Thanksgiving menu, you might be interested to know that the industry is finally showing signs of recovery after two challenging years.
According to Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, turkey farmers are raising more birds, production is climbing, and demand remains strong. Those are encouraging signs for an industry that has faced disease outbreaks, lower production, and financial losses.
The USDA estimates farmers raised about 198.5 million turkeys in 2026. That's a 3% increase from 2025 and the first time the number has grown since 2023.
Turkey meat production is also expected to increase by about 6% this year. While that's good news, production is still below the levels seen before disease outbreaks began taking a toll on the industry.
People still love their turkey
Demand for turkey remains strong, both in the United States and around the world. U.S. turkey consumption is expected to increase about 4% this year, while exports are up nearly 10%.
Mexico is the largest international market for U.S. turkey, buying far more than any other country.
Strong demand has also helped reduce the amount of turkey sitting in cold storage. Inventories were nearly 16% lower in September than they were two years ago.
Farmers are still facing some challenges
While higher turkey prices have helped farmers recover some of their losses, raising turkeys isn't getting any cheaper.
Feed is the biggest expense for turkey farmers, accounting for about two-thirds of the cost of raising a market-ready bird. It takes roughly 75 to 80 pounds of feed to raise a 38-pound tom turkey.
In his analysis, Nelson points to disease as one of the biggest wild cards for the industry heading into 2027. Higher feed costs and the possibility of more disease outbreaks could continue to put pressure on farmers, even as production recovers.
Nevertheless, the outlook for 2027 is cautiously optimistic. USDA expects turkey production to increase again, and demand remains steady. However, more birds on the market could put some downward pressure on prices.
Source: Bernt Nelson, economist, for American Farm Bureau Federation's Farm Bureau Intel